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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Inglese) Copertina flessibile – 11 mag 2010

4.5 su 5 stelle 4 recensioni clienti

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Copertina flessibile, 11 mag 2010
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Descrizione prodotto


Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
Praise for The Black Swan
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”The Times (London)
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”Financial Times
“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review


Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.
Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.

From the Hardcover edition.

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Dettagli prodotto

  • Copertina flessibile: 444 pagine
  • Editore: Random House Inc (P); 2 edizione (11 maggio 2010)
  • Collana: Incerto
  • Lingua: Inglese
  • ISBN-10: 081297381X
  • ISBN-13: 978-0812973815
  • Peso di spedizione: 340 g
  • Media recensioni: 4.5 su 5 stelle  Visualizza tutte le recensioni (4 recensioni clienti)
  • Posizione nella classifica Bestseller di Amazon: n. 11.828 in Libri in altre lingue (Visualizza i Top 100 nella categoria Libri in altre lingue)
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This book provides an innovative view on how the risks we daily face (not only the financial ones) should be managed and controlled in order to avoid new international crisis. It is also a brilliant analysis on the human psychological reaction towards risks and troubles; the predominant tendency is to ignore them or at the best to heavily underestimate them. This book instead suggests new ways to properly deal with risks and to effectively mitigate them. To be read!
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I have bought the books but I have not read it yet.
In my opinion it is interesting in order to evaluate the current situation of the world highly influenced by the post 2001 terrorist attacks and the great financial crisis post 2007
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Per sua stessa ammissione ed a più riprese Daniel Kahneman ammette di essere stato fortemente influenzato dal pensiero di NNT nell'ideazione delle sue teorie psicologiche. Assolutamente da leggere.
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Siamo tutti tesi a prevede, a predire, a non lasciare niente al caso: abbiamo forse paura della casualità, dell'imprevisto che comunque domina la nostra vita? Taleb cerca di demolire questi miti.
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Le recensioni clienti più utili su (beta) 4.0 su 5 stelle 1.185 recensioni
22 di 23 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione
5.0 su 5 stelle Eye Opening 21 luglio 2015
Di ClawedB - Pubblicato su
Formato: Formato Kindle Acquisto verificato
No, I have not read 'Fooled by Randomness'. Taleb's cheekiness and loquaciousness carries on to the point of pain in several parts of this book, and there were moments while reading part that I wanted to put this book down and set it on fire, because Taleb beats you over the head with examples of his philosophy that are only marginally different. However, by the end of the book, I was looking at the world in a new way. That being said, I believe this book in its entirety is very difficult to appreciate if you are not in the correct mindset. I am an early/mid-20's finance professional going through a period of disillusionment for example. I'm asking a lot of 'why' questions that are getting under the skin of more learned people for reasons that I, and I'm fairly certain they, did not understand. I am seeing inconsistencies in things that are treated like immutable laws. But most of all I'm beginning to prefer the initial emotional abyss of knowing that I know little and am a single person doggy paddling in the ocean, than the false intellectual security reminiscent of being a passenger in first class on the Titanic.

In many ways this book tells us things that we all already know, but part of the reason that I believe it is so long is that it needs to systematically go through so many examples of situations that we all use the same type of false logic in, and tell us that it is harmful, no matter how trivial the situation may seem. Embracing what this book is trying to say is painful, and will cause extreme amounts of cognitive dissonance if you are not in the right place. You can generally tell if you fall into that category, when you find yourself picking holes in the edge of the argument for black swans, rather that looking at your held beliefs through the central idea of the book: seeing a million white swans does not confirm the theory that every swan is white, however the sight of one black swan means that the theory is irreparably flawed.

as a real world example, an algorithm that can perfectly predict a normal commodity market and provide consistent returns for 5 years, but is wrong for one day when the market moves 200+% due to a spontaneous crisis, is useless. The one day is the only thing that mattered, while the 20% years of small consistency are the statistical noise.

Most people will always prefer a seemingly solid floor to stand on, even if it prevents them from realizing that they're sinking into the ocean
5.0 su 5 stelle A Modern Masterwork 28 febbraio 2017
Di Roger D. Williams - Pubblicato su
Formato: Formato Kindle Acquisto verificato
The first book that I read in the four-volume "Incerto" set by Nassim Kaleb was "Antifragile," so my reading of "The Black Swan" is out of sequence. However, I am glad that I came to it in its second edition, with footnotes addressing some of the criticisms made of it (tip: flip to the footnote as soon as you come across the symbol identifying it rather reading on to the end of the chapter where they are listed). While highly relevant to the dismal science of economics, it is far from a dismal tome. Some of the anecdotes will have you chuckling or even laughing out loud! It is a highly stimulating and entertaining book and will particularly delight those who enjoy the debunking of wrong-headed purveyors of elaborate academic theories that are not just useless but actually harmful. If this sounds like a book you might enjoy, be aware that the four-volume Incerto series is available as a set, something I found out too late to profit from the knowledge. I intend to purchase the other two volumes and recommend the set. His treatment of the devastating events known as Black Swans ought to be required reading for all who would like to avoid causing or experiencing them.
5.0 su 5 stelle Read this book next. 13 aprile 2017
Di Doc - Pubblicato su
Formato: Formato Kindle Acquisto verificato
Excellent book. Taleb's understanding of human nature, risk taking, proclivity to categorize even when natural categories do not apply or even exist runs contrary to much of conventional wisdom and teaching.

This work should be read and understood by anyone who makes investments, relies on planning, and believes he has mastered the field of taking risks. This work should be required reading for financial advisers, bankers, insurance executives, and all others who take risks with other people's money.
2 di 2 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione
5.0 su 5 stelle Beware the Black Swan 16 maggio 2015
Di Northern Wanderer - Pubblicato su
Formato: Copertina flessibile Acquisto verificato
This is an interesting, challenging book. The author believes that the events that change the world come out of the blue, are not predictable, and afterwards we try to make sense of them, pretending they are predictable. These events exist outside the ordinary where small perturbations of little real account can be managed for. Since we can;t predict Black Swans, we can manage so as to reduce the risk from negative swans and be ready and receptive to take advantage of positive ones.

I am still absorbing this but I think it has changed how I look at things and manage for risk and opportunity.

The author's writing is sometimes a bit bombastic and even perhaps condescending but a smart reader won't let that get in her way.
5.0 su 5 stelle Find what your Narrative is made of 15 febbraio 2017
Di S. Kolinjavadi - Pubblicato su
Formato: Copertina flessibile Acquisto verificato
Extraordinary commentary on the human mind and how our stories that form the narrative of our life are formed. It is a difficult subject and traverses so many facets of life both personal and us as a human race. It is a telling idea of how we create the image we have of ourselves, our surroundings, our history, our future and everything that goes between. It is a call to take a moment to step back and be confident in the fact that nothing is certain, but be secure in knowing that. Coming from an Eastern culture as I do, he is preaching to the choir but having lived west for a long time, its a good reminder to not get carried away with confidence unjustified in the ways of prediction, forecasting, experts, planning and blue chip stocks.