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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Inglese) Copertina flessibile – 18 lug 2011

3.8 su 5 stelle 4 recensioni clienti

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Descrizione prodotto

Recensione

I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work. -- eral Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)

[E]ssential reading . . . both for its originality and for the sobering patterns of financial behaviour it reveals. -- Economist

Reinhart and Rogoff have compiled an impressive database, which covers eight centuries of government debt defaults from around the world. They have also collected statistics on inflation rates from every country where information is available and on banking crises and international capital flows over the past couple of centuries. This lengthy historical study gives what they call a 'panoramic view' of the unending cycle of boom and bust, showing how claims that 'this time is different' are invariably proven wrong. . . . This Time Is Different doesn't simply explain what went wrong in our most recent crisis. This book also provides a roadmap of how things are likely to pan out in the years to come. . . . This Time Is Different is an important addition to the literature of financial history. -- Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal

Everyone working on economic policy should own This Time is Different and open it for a bracing blast of sobriety when things seem to be going well. -- Greg Ip, Washington Post

[A] terrific book. -- Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times

The authors use copious amounts of data . . . to make the compelling case that any well-informed person should have seen the Great Recession coming. The essence of their book is that while financial crises come in different varieties, they are not mysteriously born of undersea earthquakes, but frequently occurring events that can be spotted and even controlled if politicians and regulators know what to look for. -- Devin Leonard, New York Times

This Time is Different takes a Sergeant Friday, just-the-facts-ma'am approach: before we start theorizing, let's take a hard look at what history tells us. One side benefit of this approach is that the current book manages to be both extremely useful to professional economists and accessible to the intelligent lay reader. The Reinhart-Rogoff approach has already paid off handsomely in making sense of current events. -- Robin Wells and Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books

Professor Rogoff and his longtime collaborator Carmen Reinhart . . . know more about the history of financial crises than anyone alive. The pair have just published their broad survey of financial crises, This Time is Different. In an era when most 'analysts' rely on maybe 30 or 40 years' worth of financial history--and then only that of the U.S.--the authors' knowledge of financial crises and government bond defaults going back to the Spanish empire and before offers a richer perspective. -- Brett Arends, Wall Street Journal

[O]ne of the most important economic books of 2009. -- Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal

[T]he definitive book on financial crises. -- Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post

Two top-notch economists provide a clear and interesting explanation of why economic crises keep occurring. Broadly speaking, downturns such as the one we are recovering from are historically associated with characteristics that should sound quite familiar to today's investors. -- David Schwartz, Financial Times

[A] masterpiece. -- Martin Wolf, Financial Times

The four most dangerous words in finance are 'this time is different.' Thanks to this masterpiece by Carmen Reinhart at the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard, no one can doubt this again. . . . The authors have put an immense amount of work into collecting the data financial institutions --Andrew Allentuck, National Post

L'autore

Carmen M. Reinhart is the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. She was previously professor of economics at the University of Maryland. Kenneth S. Rogoff is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics at Harvard University. He is a frequent commentator for "NPR", the "Wall Street Journal", and the "Financial Times".

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Dettagli prodotto

  • Copertina flessibile: 463 pagine
  • Editore: Princeton Univ Pr; Reprint edizione (18 luglio 2011)
  • Collana: Princeton University Press
  • Lingua: Inglese
  • ISBN-10: 0691152640
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691152646
  • Peso di spedizione: 499 g
  • Media recensioni: 3.8 su 5 stelle  Visualizza tutte le recensioni (4 recensioni clienti)
  • Posizione nella classifica Bestseller di Amazon:
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Recensioni clienti

3.8 su 5 stelle
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Formato: Copertina flessibile
Finance is as much important as little known by the average citizen. It is also little known by the largest part of the establishment. This book is a milestone in the process of better understanding how financial crises look like. The key message is of course the one in the title: many financial situations that are unsustainable are actually considered sustainable for a long time before they collapse because involved decision makers believe that for any possible reason "this time is different". While it is not so different. From this work, we also learn that unsustainable financial situations are not so rare, neither in the developed world, like we got used to think before the 2008 "Second Great Contraction" (the first being in 1929). More precisely, it seems that the developed world was somehow able to avoid public debt crises (that in the rest of the world are frequent and create self-perpetuating loops that are very tough for a country to exit) while it has not found a solution to other crises (like bank-crises). Among the rest, it is quite striking how bad a State default can be (we even learn that in the Thirties Terranova lost indepedence because of a default) and how crises tend to be the result of mutiple equilibria situations, where very small events can determine or not the collapse. With a relevant and often original data collection, quite technical yet readable also for the amateur.
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è senza dubbio interessante, documentato e accurato. Tradisce la sua matrice scientifico-tecnica (di alto livello) con una ricchezza di dati ecc che al lettore standard risulta faticosa
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Consiglio questo libro a chi studia economia, anche se alcune parti sono un pochino troppo descrittive, quindi noiose. Comunque non l'ho ancora finito (sono quasi mille pagine), può darsi che migliorerà. Ci sono rimasta male quando ho saputo che i due autori hanno ricevuto delle critiche riguardo a uno studio condotto sul rapporto tra crescita e debito pubblico di un paese, dove affermavano che per i paesi con alto debito era quasi impossibile raggiungere un livello di crescita positivo. Un dottorando ha poi scoperto che avevano sbagliato i alcoli su Excel!
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a classic handbook to read and consult for everyone keen on economics and finance. I repeat: you cannot miss it!
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Le recensioni clienti più utili su Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: 3.7 su 5 stelle 251 recensioni
100 di 105 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione
2.0 su 5 stelle Serious methodological flaws 26 ottobre 2011
Di Abacus - Pubblicato su Amazon.com
Formato: Copertina flessibile Acquisto verificato
On April 15, 2013, a year and a half after I had first published this review a study by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin from the U of Massachusetts came out and refutted the authors main thesis that once a country reaches a Debt/GDP ratio of 90% sees its economic growth contract nearly automatically. This had become a covenant of libertarians such as Paul Ryan and Europeans promoting fiscal austerity. It turns out that Reinhart and Rogoff studies were completely wrong. R&R made numerous mistakes pointed out by the U of Mass team. The main one was to exclude three years out of the New Zealand data during a high Debt/GDP period. During those three excluded years New Zealand had grown very rapidly which contradicted R&R thesis. Once you make those corrections (including a few others that were minute by comparison), there is no statistical difference in growth rate between countries with high Debt/GDP ratio vs ones with lower ones. So much for Austerity. This is a devastating blow to what we thought was a classic study on the subject. Below see my original review. Notice that I had also observed many other flaws with their work but not the one mentioned above since I never saw the data firsthand.

This book is both fascinating and flawed. Starting with the flaws:

First, the book is mistitled. It covers the last 200 years not the last 800.

Second, their crisis framework is convoluted relative to the crystal clear framework of Charles Kindleberger in Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley Investment Classics). The latter leans on the seminal work of Irving Fisher The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions and Hyman Minsky (the credit cycle exacerbates the business cycle) that the authors completely ignore.

Third, some of their analyses are obfuscating. They baffle the reader on how frequently emerging market countries default with surprisingly low external debt levels. Later, the authors clarify that debt levels are far higher when including domestic debt; then the baffling turns into the self-evident.

Fourth, in Chapter 16, their development of a crisis index measure is weak with no predictive power. The first two graphs capturing this index (ranging from 1 to 5) over the past 100 years have the wrong y-axis (ranging from 0 to 180?) rendering the graph incomprehensible (pg. 253, 254). Two pages later, they use the correct scale (1 - 5).

Fifth, the graph on page 267 denoting the % collapse of exports during the Great Depression has the wrong sign.

Sixth, some of their conclusions are already outdated. They advance that Greece, Portugal, Italy, and Spain are all doing better than in recent years. The book came out in 2009; didn't those countries show signs of fiscal stress? Since 1800, Greece suffered external debt defaults or rescheduling in over 50% of the years.

Seventh, their argument that large Current Account Deficits (CADs) fuel housing bubbles is not supported. When they show the magnitude of the rise in housing prices over 2002 - 2006 for many countries (Fig. 15.1), it is unclear if there are any relationship between high CAD and housing Bubbles. The housing bubble was far greater in many former USSR satellites than anywhere else (unclear if they had high CADs).

Moving on to the ambivalent OK parts:

1) Their early warning indicators of banking and currency crises (Table 17.1) are interesting. They indicate that 12 month changes in real housing and stock prices are good early signals for banking crises. They mention other metrics such as CAD levels. But, those indicators are unsupported by any statistical analysis.

Moving on to the good parts:

1) Their prototype sequencing of crises represents their best work. It shows how a nation can experience in succession financial deregulation, banking crisis, currency crash, inflation spike, and ultimately default. The tipping point is when a government faces an untenable choice between defending its currency (restrictive policies) and shoring up its financial sector (expansive policies). Governments invariably abandon supporting their currency.

2) Their historical data facilitate interesting observations:

2a) Crisis related to sovereign risks are so frequent, you wonder how countries ever manage to raise debt. While developed countries have "graduated" from defaults, they have not from banking crises. Since 1800, the UK, US, and France have experienced 12, 13, and 15 episodes of banking crises. Banking crises have been frequent since the 1980s. Developed countries are prone to banking crises because financial deregulation is a causal factor. In 18 of 26 banking crises observed since 1970, the financial sector had been liberalized within the preceding 5 years.

2b) Post WWII financial crises have been severe. On average, real housing prices decline by 35% over 6 years; stocks crash by 56% over 3.5 years; unemployment rate increases by 7 percentage points; GDP contracts by 9%; and, public debt rises by 86%.

2c) The US Subprime crisis was more severe than any other post WWII financial crisis. Its housing and stock market bubbles were more pronounced. The US CAD as a % of GDP was larger. The downturn in GDP was more severe. The resulting increase in public debt was faster. The ramp up of all mentioned indicators suggested a financial crisis was imminent. The authors remark that if the US had been an emerging market relying on external debt (in foreign currency), the US dollar value would have plummeted and interest rates soared.

3) When the authors move on to the US Subprime crisis, they note how the majority of experts, including Bernanke and Greenspan, were not concerned regarding the rising US Current Account Deficit (CAD) and rising housing prices. These experts stated the CAD and home price increases were associated with a World savings glut resulting from Asian export led economies. Meanwhile others (Rubini, Krugman, and the authors) were concerned about the CAD sustainability (absorbing 2/3d of World savings), housing prices (in real term rose by 92% between 1996 and 2006 or more than 3 x the 27% increase from 1890 to 1996! See graph pg. 207) and the massive increase in US household debt (rose from a norm of 80% of personal income to 130% by 2006).

If you are interested in this subject, I also recommend Raghuram Rajan's Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy [New in Paper].
4.0 su 5 stelle This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economics 28 luglio 2016
Di Amazon Customer - Pubblicato su Amazon.com
Formato: Copertina flessibile Acquisto verificato
This is a truly stellar book that everyone interested in economic and economic history should read. The level of historical analysis is quite high and the amount of detail is immense. That said, it is not an easy read. This is a dense, complex book. The authors write as academics, not entertainers. If you are looking for an economic version of "Game of Thrones", you won't find it. If you are looking for substance, this is very good starting (and ending) point.

The real point of the authors, is that every era thinks "This Time Is Different" and the truth is almost always otherwise. Debt, deficits, and default have been recurring themes throughout human history. They have happened many times before. They will happen many times again. The countries you think will never default, frequently do. Germany is generally regarded as one of the safest creditors in the world (these days). German history suggests otherwise. Greece has been in ruins (economic ruins) for almost 200 years.

The idea that Greece was ever a reasonable credit risk was (is) absurd. Yet, Greece could borrow at rock bottom interest rates for years after it joined the Euro system. Even now, Europe's leaders are trying to prevent a final default (wipe out) on Greek debt. History says that they will lose.
9 di 9 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione
5.0 su 5 stelle 10 Reasons to Consider Buying This Book 9 ottobre 2011
Di AdamSmythe - Pubblicato su Amazon.com
Formato: Copertina flessibile Acquisto verificato
1. This book has quickly become one of the standard references for discussions regarding the causes, progression and long-term effects of financial crises.

2. In the sense that the authors' discussions and conclusions are well researched, this book is scholarly. It is not light reading, although the intelligent lay reader will do fine.

3. The authors have a sense of humor, which makes reading this book a little easier. Their humor starts with the title of the book, which is not to be taken literally.

4. With the various forms of financial crisis present in many parts of the world, the book is clearly topical.

5. The main part of the book, which is only about 290 pages, can be read and understood in a reasonable amount of time.

6. The book's charts and tables distill a lot of information into relatively short spaces. The charts and tables are imbedded into the main text and into detailed, separate data appendixes.

7. The book does not promote simplistic, one size fits all, solutions. The economic world, after all, is complicated.

8. The roots of the present lie deep in the past. An understanding of the common problems and policy mistakes of earlier financial crises can help citizens and policymakers make better policy choices.

9. The book is blessedly non-partisan.

10. It is too early to tell for sure, but I suspect that this book, alongside works that have stood the test of time, will become a classic in the field of financial crises.
1 di 1 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione
4.0 su 5 stelle Proof Financial Mismanagement Repeats Itself and Important Lessons from History 29 dicembre 2014
Di Jerry Zakariasen - Pubblicato su Amazon.com
Formato: Formato Kindle Acquisto verificato
This is a very important, "must read" book. An excellent analysis of history, and where the monetary and fiscal policies of western world central bankers and governments are going to lead us. Sadly these people, who are bent on making the rich richer and the middle income populace into the working poor, are eventually going to crash the global monetary system. In individual economic regions/countries it has happened over a hundred times before, and the authors prove it will happen again. The title of the book is of course "tongue in cheek" because history has proven that " this time" is never different. Today, because of our highly integrated and interdependent global financial system, the next crash in a major economic region will likely crash the entire planet. We live in a world of finite resources, and yet our monetary system only functions in the presence of ever expanding exponential growth built on exponentially increasing levels of debt. We are now starting to bump into the limits of sustainable debt levels in many countries, and are rapidly approaching what the authors call a BANG moment when system breaks down. That is the nature of "faith" based, fiat currency systems. As soon as faith is lost, economies can completely fall apart within weeks. Those who are unprepared and holding paper assets stand to lose almost everything. In the past,(think Weimar Germany) life savings of millions where lost in a matter of weeks. In 2008 we came within hours of a complete breakdown of the system. The massive bailouts and liquidity injections into the system (at taxpayers expense) only served to forestall the inevitable. The next crisis is nearly upon us, and will make what happened into 2008 look like a birthday party by comparison. If you doubt this is true you had better take off your blinders and read this book!
3 di 3 persone hanno trovato utile la seguente recensione
3.0 su 5 stelle Poor for Paperwhite 6 giugno 2013
Di GeoCitizen411 - Pubblicato su Amazon.com
Formato: Formato Kindle Acquisto verificato
I give this book five stars for content. I found it very interting and thought provoking. We always convince ourselves that this time it is going to be different but when when dealing with human traits (buy/sell/hold decisions fall into this category) it is never different. People haven't changed since we started roaming the planet, so why we expect things to be different is amazing.

The content is a bit intellectual, which isn't bad per se. Maybe because I mainly read before bed, I found it took more concentration to follow then the typical finance/economics stuff I read.

I give this book one star for its Kindle Paperwhite presentation. There are many charts and graphs supporting the text and they are very difficult to read, mainly due to contrast and shades of gray rendering. Perhaps on a color Kindle like Fire this won't be a problem but on the Paperwhite, it is a disaster. If you own a Paperwhite or probably any non-color Kindle, I would avoid buying this book. I feel I wasted my money.

While the charts/graphs are not critical to understanding the points he makes, they are copious and not having them to ponder as you read makes the book less fun.

I recommend the book(content), just not the Paperwhite presentation.